Yvelines — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Yvelines
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvelines — 4ème circonscription | 36.1% | 26.3% | 24.3% | 10.5% |
| Provincial averageYvelines | 26.0%+10.1 | 29.5%−3.2 | 26.9%−2.5 | 13.4%−2.9 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+19.1 | 29.0%−2.7 | 36.0%−11.6 | 12.2%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marie LEBEC · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie LEBEC Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 23,932 | 41.2 |
| Céline BOURDON | Left (NFP) | 15,787 | 27.2 |
| Jean-François MOURTOUX | RN and allies | 11,599 | 20.0 |
| Anne-Sophie HO MASSAT | LR and allies | 5,383 | 9.3 |
| Manon BARDY | RN and allies | 835 | 1.4 |
| Franck MAUREL | Far left | 489 | 0.8 |
| James POGGIA | Others | 2 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Yvelines — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 8ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated