Moselle — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Moselle
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moselle — 5ème circonscription | 48.9% | 33.6% | 11.0% | 4.3% |
| Provincial averageMoselle | 46.0%+2.9 | 16.7%+16.9 | 20.8%−9.8 | 3.2%+1.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.9 | 12.2%+21.4 | 29.0%−18.0 | 3.9%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Pascal JENFT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal JENFT Elected | RN and allies | 20,884 | 47.5 |
| Vincent SEITLINGER | LR and allies | 15,045 | 34.2 |
| Lisa LAHORE | Left (NFP) | 5,439 | 12.4 |
| Denis LIEB | Others | 1,128 | 2.6 |
| Hervé HOCQUET | Sovereignists | 552 | 1.3 |
| Gilles SEBASTIAN | Far left | 453 | 1.0 |
| Stéphane MARCHAND | RN and allies | 449 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Moselle — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Moselle — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated