Moselle — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Moselle
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moselle — 1ère circonscription | 42.6% | 25.2% | 22.5% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageMoselle | 46.0%−3.4 | 20.8%+4.4 | 11.6%+10.9 | 3.2%+1.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.6 | 29.0%−3.8 | 17.0%+5.5 | 3.9%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Belkhir BELHADDAD · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grégoire LALOUX | RN and allies | 22,570 | 39.8 |
| Belkhir BELHADDAD Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,640 | 27.6 |
| Vincent FELIX | Left (NFP) | 14,793 | 26.1 |
| Stephen DUSO-BAUDUIN | Others | 1,094 | 1.9 |
| Jean-François JACQUES | Sovereignists | 1,027 | 1.8 |
| Didier GEORGET | Far left | 745 | 1.3 |
| Américo Jonas COSTA | Others | 618 | 1.1 |
| Célia LEJAL | Far left | 202 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Moselle — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Moselle — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Moselle — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Moselle — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated