Morbihan — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Morbihan
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives another bloc a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Others | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morbihan — 4ème circonscription | 37.9% | 34.6% | 13.9% | 10.5% |
| Provincial averageMorbihan | 8.8%+29.1 | 33.8%+0.7 | 24.3%−10.4 | 25.6%−15.1 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9%+33.9 | 36.0%−1.4 | 29.0%−15.1 | 17.0%−6.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Paul MOLAC · Others
Previous election (2024)
Another bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: another bloc ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul MOLAC Elected | Others | 28,912 | 35.8 |
| Katel LE CUILLIER | RN and allies | 25,414 | 31.5 |
| Rozenn GUEGAN | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,487 | 15.5 |
| Lhea LE FLECHER | Left (NFP) | 11,809 | 14.6 |
| Bernard HUET | Sovereignists | 920 | 1.1 |
| Khaled MAMAR | Greens | 602 | 0.7 |
| Patrice CRUNIL | Far left | 515 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire-Atlantique — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Morbihan — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Morbihan — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Côtes-d'Armor — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated