Morbihan — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Morbihan
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morbihan — 1ère circonscription | 37.0% | 29.6% | 28.3% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageMorbihan | 25.6%+11.4 | 24.3%+5.3 | 33.8%−5.6 | 8.8%−5.3 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+20.0 | 29.0%+0.6 | 36.0%−7.7 | 3.9%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Anne LE HÉNANFF · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 7.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anne LE HÉNANFF Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 35,627 | 42.1 |
| Anne GALLO | Left (NFP) | 23,884 | 28.2 |
| Joseph MARTIN | RN and allies | 21,454 | 25.4 |
| Yann LE BARAILLEC | Left (NFP) | 1,898 | 2.2 |
| Ronan LE SANT | Others | 1,084 | 1.3 |
| Marc PESCHANSKI | Far left | 432 | 0.5 |
| Alice VASSEUR | Others | 182 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Morbihan — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Morbihan — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Morbihan — 4ème circonscription Others, safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loire-Atlantique — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Côtes-d'Armor — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated