Doubs — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Doubs
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 40% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubs — 1ère circonscription | 34.3% | 31.0% | 28.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageDoubs | 40.3%−6.1 | 25.7%+5.3 | 19.7%+8.9 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−1.7 | 29.0%+2.0 | 17.0%+11.6 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent CROIZIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent CROIZIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,475 | 33.5 |
| Séverine VÉZIÈS | Left (NFP) | 16,555 | 31.8 |
| Thomas LUTZ | RN and allies | 16,264 | 31.2 |
| Marielle PERNIN | Greens | 923 | 1.8 |
| Nicole FRIESS | Far left | 780 | 1.5 |
| Alain RUCH | Far left | 133 | 0.3 |
| Elisa MORÉ | Others | 2 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doubs — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Jura — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Saône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Doubs — 5ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Côte-d'Or — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Jura — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated