Aube — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aube
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aube — 1ère circonscription | 56.6% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 12.9% |
| Provincial averageAube | 50.2%+6.4 | 10.0%+3.7 | 17.6%−4.1 | 18.5%−5.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.6 | 17.0%−3.2 | 29.0%−15.5 | 12.2%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jordan GUITTON · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 42.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan GUITTON Elected | RN and allies | 22,636 | 53.8 |
| Philippe BEURY | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,898 | 18.8 |
| Alice BARRY | Left (NFP) | 6,019 | 14.3 |
| Chris MANIERI-BIGORGNE | LR and allies | 4,921 | 11.7 |
| Lionel PAILLARD | Far left | 570 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aube — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aube — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yonne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated