Aube — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aube
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aube — 2ème circonscription | 47.6% | 29.0% | 15.8% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageAube | 50.2%−2.6 | 18.5%+10.5 | 17.6%−1.9 | 10.0%−5.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.6 | 12.2%+16.8 | 29.0%−13.3 | 17.0%−12.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Valérie BAZIN-MALGRAS · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 18.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albéric FERRAND | RN and allies | 22,316 | 44.8 |
| Valérie BAZIN-MALGRAS Elected | LR and allies | 13,902 | 27.9 |
| Samira SEBBARI | Left (NFP) | 8,256 | 16.6 |
| Salomé FONTAINE-GARCIA | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,703 | 9.5 |
| Romain VALLÉE | Far left | 603 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aube — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yonne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aube — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Côte-d'Or — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated