Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Alpes-Maritimes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription | 59.3% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes | 48.5%+10.8 | 10.7%+6.7 | 18.5%−2.8 | 2.6%+0.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+23.3 | 17.0%+0.4 | 29.0%−13.3 | 0.4%+3.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Alexandra MASSON · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 41.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra MASSON Elected | RN and allies | 30,528 | 56.3 |
| Anne-Pascale GUEDON | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,116 | 22.3 |
| Virginie PARENT | Left (NFP) | 8,935 | 16.5 |
| Christine BEYL | Greens | 2,216 | 4.1 |
| Joseph MARKIEL | Far left | 454 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated