Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Alpes-Maritimes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription | 44.1% | 25.9% | 17.9% | 7.0% |
| Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes | 48.5%−4.4 | 18.5%+7.4 | 10.7%+7.2 | 15.7%−8.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.1 | 29.0%−3.1 | 17.0%+0.8 | 12.2%−5.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Eric CIOTTI · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 18.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric CIOTTI Elected | RN and allies | 20,809 | 41.0 |
| Olivier SALERNO | Left (NFP) | 13,499 | 26.6 |
| Graig MONETTI | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,558 | 22.8 |
| Virgile VANIER-GUÉRIN | LR and allies | 2,933 | 5.8 |
| Lalla Chama BEN MOULAY | Greens | 1,427 | 2.8 |
| Alain LANGOUET | Far left | 313 | 0.6 |
| Jean-Claude Wahid SPACH | Others | 136 | 0.3 |
| Maxime BOVIS | Others | 34 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated