Meuse — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Meuse
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meuse — 1ère circonscription | 48.3% | 34.7% | 12.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMeuse | 49.7%−1.4 | 33.1%+1.5 | 12.9%−0.1 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.4 | 12.2%+22.4 | 29.0%−16.2 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Maxime AMBLARD · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime AMBLARD Elected | RN and allies | 23,680 | 48.0 |
| Bertrand PANCHER | LR and allies | 16,901 | 34.2 |
| Olivier GUCKERT | Left (NFP) | 7,066 | 14.3 |
| Sylvie MARIAGE | Sovereignists | 708 | 1.4 |
| Grégoire MOUTAUX | LR and allies | 548 | 1.1 |
| Blaise TYMEN | Far left | 481 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Meuse — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated