VoteScope Labs · Updated October 4, 2026

Orbit Live experiment QuantumRelativisticQubits

United Kingdom

Same polls, different physics. Here is what Orbit, our quantum engine, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Labour
90% chance of finishing first

Seats won

344Harfang 261 8 in 10 chance between 222 and 387

Chance of a majority (326)

38%Harfang 6% Labour

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

84% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

Same winner, different call on the majority

Orbit (quantum)
Harfang (classical)
Majority: 326
  • Labour
  • Reform UK
  • Conservative
  • Lib Dems
  • SNP
  • Other
  • Sinn Féin
  • Plaid Cymru
  • DUP
  • Green
  • SDLP
  • Alliance
  • UUP

Party by party

Labour +83 Harfang
344
Vote
28.6%
Vote Harfang
28.4%
Chance of a majority
38%
Reform UK −21 Harfang
118
Vote
22.9%
Vote Harfang
23.8%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Conservative −24 Harfang
73
Vote
18.8%
Vote Harfang
18.1%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Lib Dems −4 Harfang
68
Vote
9.1%
Vote Harfang
9.4%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
SNP −32 Harfang
12
Vote
2.1%
Vote Harfang
2.5%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Other = Harfang
9
Vote
5.7%
Vote Harfang
6.1%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Sinn Féin = Harfang
7
Vote
0.7%
Vote Harfang
0.7%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Plaid Cymru −2 Harfang
6
Vote
0.9%
Vote Harfang
1.3%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
DUP = Harfang
5
Vote
0.6%
Vote Harfang
0.6%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Green = Harfang
4
Vote
9.4%
Vote Harfang
10.4%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
SDLP = Harfang
2
Vote
0.3%
Vote Harfang
0.3%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Alliance = Harfang
1
Vote
0.4%
Vote Harfang
0.4%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
UUP = Harfang
1
Vote
0.3%
Vote Harfang
0.3%
Chance of a majority
< 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

  • Labour 28.6%
  • Reform UK 22.9%
  • Conservative 18.8%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 5.7%
  • SNP 2.1%

Where the two engines disagree

  • Aylesbury Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Bassetlaw Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Beverley and Holderness Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 37% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Bishop Auckland Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Bolsover Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Bolton North East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 51% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Bracknell Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 53% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Bromsgrove Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 41% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Broxbourne Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 47% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Carlisle Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Central Devon Orbit (quantum): Labour · 35% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Chelsea and Fulham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 58% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Derbyshire Dales Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Earley and Woodley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 70% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • East Thanet Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Erewash Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Exmouth and Exeter East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 37% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Gillingham and Rainham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Gravesham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 45% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Hendon Orbit (quantum): Labour · 62% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Heywood and Middleton North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 54% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Kettering Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 46% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Maldon Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 57% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Newcastle-under-Lyme Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Newton Abbot Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 52% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
  • Normanton and Hemsworth Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • North East Derbyshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • North East Hampshire Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 50% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
  • North Somerset Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Oldham East and Saddleworth Orbit (quantum): Labour · 55% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Pendle and Clitheroe Orbit (quantum): Labour · 42% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Peterborough Orbit (quantum): Labour · 43% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Poole Orbit (quantum): Labour · 41% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Reading West and Mid Berkshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 58% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Redcar Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Ribble Valley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Romsey and Southampton North Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 56% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
  • Rother Valley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Rotherham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Scarborough and Whitby Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • South Dorset Orbit (quantum): Labour · 44% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • South Shields Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • South West Devon Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 42% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Southend West and Leigh Orbit (quantum): Labour · 45% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Stourbridge Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Suffolk Coastal Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip Orbit (quantum): Labour · 54% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Washington and Gateshead South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Wellingborough and Rushden Orbit (quantum): Labour · 48% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Weston-super-Mare Orbit (quantum): Labour · 58% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Witham Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 46% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Wolverhampton North East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 59% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • East Renfrewshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 80% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Midlothian Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran Orbit (quantum): Labour · 50% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Aberdeen South Orbit (quantum): SNP · 42% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 40% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Airdrie and Shotts Orbit (quantum): Labour · 73% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Alloa and Grangemouth Orbit (quantum): Labour · 67% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Coatbridge and Bellshill Orbit (quantum): Labour · 65% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Orbit (quantum): Labour · 70% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Dunfermline and Dollar Orbit (quantum): Labour · 77% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven Orbit (quantum): Labour · 79% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Orbit (quantum): Labour · 66% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Edinburgh North and Leith Orbit (quantum): Labour · 80% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Edinburgh South West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 79% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Falkirk Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 61% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow North East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 73% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 56% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow South West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 54% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Glasgow West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Gordon and Buchan Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 44% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley Orbit (quantum): Labour · 81% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Orbit (quantum): Labour · 64% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Livingston Orbit (quantum): Labour · 53% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Orbit (quantum): Labour · 67% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North Orbit (quantum): Labour · 65% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South Orbit (quantum): Labour · 68% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Rutherglen Orbit (quantum): Labour · 76% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Stirling and Strathallan Orbit (quantum): Labour · 49% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • West Dunbartonshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 63% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Orbit (quantum): Labour · 60% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Central Ayrshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 74% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun Orbit (quantum): Labour · 60% Harfang (classical): SNP
  • Bangor Aberconwy Orbit (quantum): Labour · 40% Harfang (classical): Plaid Cymru
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 37% Harfang (classical): Lib Dems
  • Bridgend Orbit (quantum): Labour · 47% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Clwyd East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 39% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Clwyd North Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 41% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Llanelli Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 54% Harfang (classical): Plaid Cymru
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire Orbit (quantum): Reform UK · 43% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Monmouthshire Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Newport East Orbit (quantum): Labour · 52% Harfang (classical): Reform UK
  • Vale of Glamorgan Orbit (quantum): Labour · 45% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Wrexham Orbit (quantum): Labour · 46% Harfang (classical): Reform UK

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

14.4 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 1.7 points, around the most likely state

Horizon

Election today No election date set: forecast if the election were held today, like our reference forecast.

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation →