VoteScope Labs · Updated October 4, 2026

Orbit Live experiment QuantumRelativisticQubits

Canada (federal)

Same polls, different physics. Here is what Orbit, our quantum engine, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Liberal
> 99% chance of finishing first

Seats won

261Harfang 229 8 in 10 chance between 214 and 284

Chance of a majority (172)

> 99%Harfang > 99% Liberal

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

84% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

They agree

Orbit (quantum)
Harfang (classical)
50/50 blend
Majority: 172
  • Liberal
  • Conservative
  • NDP
  • Bloc
  • Green

What if we listened to both engines at once?

50/50 blend: Liberal 234 · Chance of a majority> 99%

The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. October 5 will be its first real blind test.

Party by party

Liberal +32 Harfang
261
Vote
50.3%
Vote Harfang
46.7%
Chance of a majority
> 99%
Conservative −27 Harfang
54
Vote
30.0%
Vote Harfang
30.9%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
NDP +5 Harfang
14
Vote
10.5%
Vote Harfang
12.1%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Bloc −10 Harfang
12
Vote
5.6%
Vote Harfang
6.2%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Green = Harfang
2
Vote
2.2%
Vote Harfang
2.2%
Chance of a majority
< 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

  • Liberal 50.3%
  • Conservative 30.0%
  • NDP 10.5%
  • Bloc 5.6%
  • Green 2.2%

Where the two engines disagree

  • Fundy Royal Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 76% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 54% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 58% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • La Pointe-de-l'Île Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 61% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Laurentides--Labelle Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 52% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 66% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Mirabel Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 59% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Montmorency--Charlevoix Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 55% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 58% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Repentigny Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 66% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Richmond--Arthabaska Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 77% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Rimouski--La Matapédia Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Saint-Jean Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Shefford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 71% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 59% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Barrie-Sud--Innisfil Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 54% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Brantford--Brant-Sud--Six Nations Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 74% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 71% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Essex Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant-Nord Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 79% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 59% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Huron--Bruce Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 74% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 77% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kenora--Kiiwetinoong Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 67% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • London--Fanshawe Orbit (quantum): NDP · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Middlesex--London Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 78% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Niagara-Ouest Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 80% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Oxford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Parry Sound--Muskoka Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 78% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Perth--Wellington Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Simcoe--Grey Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 80% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 63% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Windsor-Ouest Orbit (quantum): NDP · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • York-Centre Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • York--Durham Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 64% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Winnipeg-Centre Orbit (quantum): NDP · 68% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Crowfoot Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 52% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary-Est Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 72% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Heritage Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 67% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Nose Hill Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 57% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Signal Hill Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 59% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Lethbridge Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 71% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • St. Albert--Sturgeon River Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 83% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Chilliwack--Hope Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 61% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 76% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 80% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 61% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Vancouver Kingsway Orbit (quantum): NDP · 54% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Nunavut Orbit (quantum): NDP · 62% Harfang (classical): Liberal

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

13.1 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 1.8 points, around the most likely state

Horizon

Election today No election date set: forecast if the election were held today, like our reference forecast.

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation →