Creuse — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Creuse
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 65%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creuse — 1ère circonscription | 37.0% | 23.2% | 22.6% | 12.4% |
| Provincial averageCreuse | 37.0% | 23.2% | 22.6% | 12.4% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.0 | 12.2%+11.0 | 29.0%−6.4 | 17.0%−4.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Bartolomé LENOIR · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolomé LENOIR Elected | RN and allies | 20,403 | 33.4 |
| Catherine COUTURIER | Left (NFP) | 14,359 | 23.5 |
| Valérie SIMONET | LR and allies | 13,536 | 22.1 |
| Jean-Baptiste MOREAU | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,670 | 17.4 |
| Catherine DUMON | Far left | 958 | 1.6 |
| Florence VERHEYEN VALADE | Others | 763 | 1.3 |
| Ana PINSON | RN and allies | 493 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Vienne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Corrèze — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Haute-Vienne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Indre — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Allier — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Puy-de-Dôme — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated