VoteScope Labs · Orbit · Updated October 4, 2026
French presidential election 2027, according to Orbit
Same polls, different physics. For each candidate line-up with enough polling, Orbit tracks the first round on its sphere, opens the cone of possibilities to April 18, 2027, then plays the runoff with head-to-head polls or, failing that, vote transfers.
Chance of winning — "Le Pen · Attal · Glucksmann" line-up
Out of 100. The top bar is Orbit; the bottom one, our reference forecast.
They agree
- Le Pen
- Glucksmann
- Attal
Line-up · 14 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Attal · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.4% | 19–44% | 34.1% | 92%ref. > 99% | 97%ref. > 99% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.0% | 6–27% | 17.3% | 43%ref. 76% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.8% | 4–22% | 13.3% | 24%ref. 18% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.6% | 3–20% | 10.6% | 19%ref. 4% | 2%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10.1% | 3–19% | 10.1% | 15%ref. 2% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.1% | 1–12% | 5.7% | 4%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.2% | 0–9% | 3.0% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.3% | 0–8% | 2.6% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.2% | 0–8% | 2.1% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.8% | 0–5% | 1.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 37% of cases · runoff share 32.8% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Gabriel Attal – Marine Le Pen: 20% of cases · runoff share 44.9% ± 2.8 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 16% of cases · runoff share 45.0% ± 4.1 · runoff polls
Line-up · 13 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Attal · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 33.8% | 18–43% | 32.9% | 92%ref. > 99% | 96%ref. > 99% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.2% | 6–26% | 16.4% | 43%ref. 72% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 13.1% | 4–22% | 13.2% | 28%ref. 23% | 2%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9.5% | 2–18% | 9.3% | 15%ref. 3% | 2%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.4% | 1–15% | 7.6% | 9%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Gabriel Attal | 6.4% | 1–14% | 7.2% | 7%ref. 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.0% | 0–12% | 5.3% | 4%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.2% | 0–9% | 3.1% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.2% | 0–8% | 2.1% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.9% | 0–7% | 2.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.9% | 0–5% | 1.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 37% of cases · runoff share 32.8% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 23% of cases · runoff share 46.1% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 12% of cases · runoff share 45.0% ± 4.1 · runoff polls
Line-up · 13 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Glucksmann
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 33.7% | 18–44% | 33.0% | 90%ref. > 99% | 95%ref. > 99% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.5% | 7–27% | 17.9% | 42%ref. 52% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.2% | 7–27% | 17.1% | 40%ref. 46% | 3%ref. < 1% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10.7% | 3–19% | 10.6% | 15%ref. 2% | 1%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.1% | 2–16% | 8.2% | 8%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.4% | 0–11% | 4.9% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.0% | 0–9% | 3.1% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.1% | 0–8% | 2.3% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.0% | 0–8% | 2.2% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.8% | 0–5% | 0.9% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 35% of cases · runoff share 32.8% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 33% of cases · runoff share 46.1% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Raphaël Glucksmann – Marine Le Pen: 12% of cases · runoff share 45.0% ± 4.1 · runoff polls
Line-up · 6 polls of this line-up
Le Pen · Philippe · Hollande
| Candidate | 1st round (Orbit) | 8 in 10 range | 1st round ref. | Makes runoff | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 34.4% | 19–44% | 33.7% | 91%ref. > 99% | 95%ref. > 99% |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.3% | 7–27% | 16.7% | 42%ref. 45% | 4%ref. < 1% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17.1% | 7–27% | 17.6% | 41%ref. 53% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5% | 2–17% | 9.4% | 10%ref. 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| François Hollande | 7.1% | 1–15% | 7.3% | 7%ref. < 1% | 1%ref. < 1% |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.8% | 0–12% | 5.0% | 3%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.1% | 0–11% | 4.1% | 2%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.0% | 0–9% | 3.1% | 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.0% | 0–8% | 2.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.1% | 0–6% | 1.0% | < 1%ref. < 1% | < 1%ref. < 1% |
Most likely runoffs
- Édouard Philippe – Marine Le Pen: 36% of cases · runoff share 46.1% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon – Marine Le Pen: 35% of cases · runoff share 32.8% ± 2.9 · runoff polls
- Bruno Retailleau – Marine Le Pen: 8% of cases · runoff share 42.0% ± 4.1 · runoff polls