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What if the polls moved in Ontario?

Move the parties and watch Ontario’s electoral map reassemble.

Personal scenario · starting from the forecast of October 15, 2026 · Ontario · 124 ridings

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

63 seats = majority

  • Progressive Conservative66—
  • Ontario NDP28—
  • Ontario Liberal27—
  • Ontario Green2—
  • Other1—
  • 40.3 %
  • 20.7 %
  • 33.8 %
  • 2.1 %
  • 3.1 %

Total100.0 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from October 15, 2026. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

Progressive ConservativeOntario NDPOntario LiberalOntario GreenOther

Loading the map…

Who holds what, in your scenario

Progressive Conservative

67—
  1. Hamilton Mountain0.0
  2. Mississauga Centre0.5
  3. Newmarket—Aurora0.7
  4. Milton0.8
  5. Peterborough—Kawartha1.1
  6. Scarborough—Rouge Park1.4
  7. Whitby3.3
  8. Pickering—Uxbridge3.4
  9. Oakville North—Burlington3.6
  10. Markham—Stouffville4.0
  11. Parry Sound—Muskoka4.5
  12. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek5.2
  13. Mississauga—Malton7.0
  14. Cambridge7.5
  15. Carleton8.2
  16. Markham—Thornhill8.6
  17. Algoma—Manitoulin8.7
  18. Bay of Quinte9.9
  19. Kitchener—Conestoga10.3
  20. Scarborough North10.6
  21. York Centre11.0
  22. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte11.4
  23. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell11.5
  24. Hastings—Lennox and Addington12.6
  25. Flamborough—Glanbrook12.7
  26. Brampton Centre12.7
  27. Wellington—Halton Hills12.9
  28. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound13.0
  29. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston13.5
  30. Thunder Bay—Atikokan14.4
  31. Durham14.7
  32. Brampton South14.8
  33. Windsor—Tecumseh15.0
  34. Richmond Hill16.0
  35. Brampton East16.7
  36. Northumberland—Peterborough South16.9
  37. Perth—Wellington17.8
  38. Kitchener South—Hespeler17.9
  39. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill18.0
  40. Brampton West18.9
  41. Simcoe—Grey19.4
  42. Huron—Bruce20.3
  43. Dufferin—Caledon20.9
  44. Brantford—Brant21.7
  45. Brampton North22.0
  46. Simcoe North22.0
  47. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock22.8
  48. Etobicoke North23.7
  49. Nipissing24.3
  50. Niagara West24.6
  51. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes25.1
  52. Markham—Unionville25.1
  53. Barrie—Innisfil25.2
  54. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex25.6
  55. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke29.1
  56. Thornhill29.2
  57. Elgin—Middlesex—London29.5
  58. Sarnia—Lambton29.5
  59. Oxford30.3
  60. King—Vaughan30.9
  61. Essex31.7
  62. Chatham-Kent—Leamington31.9
  63. Vaughan—Woodbridge33.2
  64. York—Simcoe33.8
  65. Kenora—Rainy River35.7
  66. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry37.2
  67. Timmins43.0

Ontario NDP

28—
  1. Humber River—Black Creek4.9
  2. Sault Ste. Marie5.1
  3. Toronto Centre5.3
  4. Mushkegowuk—James Bay5.5
  5. Niagara Centre6.9
  6. Oshawa6.9
  7. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas8.4
  8. St. Catharines9.0
  9. Spadina—Fort York10.4
  10. Parkdale—High Park11.5
  11. Timiskaming—Cochrane11.6
  12. University—Rosedale11.7
  13. Thunder Bay—Superior North11.9
  14. Sudbury13.6
  15. Hamilton Centre14.5
  16. Windsor West14.6
  17. London—Fanshawe15.4
  18. London North Centre16.0
  19. London West16.2
  20. Scarborough Southwest16.7
  21. Nickel Belt17.4
  22. Ottawa West—Nepean21.9
  23. Niagara Falls22.3
  24. Waterloo24.8
  25. Ottawa Centre30.9
  26. Davenport33.7
  27. Toronto—Danforth36.3
  28. Kiiwetinoong41.6

Ontario Liberal

26—
  1. Scarborough—Agincourt0.1
  2. Mississauga—Streetsville0.6
  3. Oakville1.3
  4. Etobicoke Centre1.3
  5. Mississauga—Lakeshore1.3
  6. Mississauga East—Cooksville1.9
  7. Burlington5.1
  8. Mississauga—Erin Mills5.2
  9. Willowdale5.7
  10. Scarborough Centre5.8
  11. Ajax6.0
  12. York South—Weston7.0
  13. Eglinton—Lawrence7.1
  14. Kanata—Carleton10.1
  15. Toronto—St. Paul's12.2
  16. Nepean12.9
  17. Don Valley North13.8
  18. Etobicoke—Lakeshore15.6
  19. Scarborough—Guildwood21.0
  20. Orléans21.7
  21. Don Valley West31.1
  22. Ottawa South31.4
  23. Beaches—East York31.6
  24. Ottawa—Vanier31.7
  25. Don Valley East32.2
  26. Kingston and the Islands42.1

Ontario Green

2—
  1. Kitchener Centre25.7
  2. Guelph31.5

Other

1—
  1. Haldimand—Norfolk39.4

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published forecast; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.