Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

What if the polls moved in Canada?

Move the national or regional vote and see all 343 ridings respond.

Personal scenario · starting from the forecast of October 15, 2026 · Canada · 343 ridings

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

172 seats = majority

  • Liberal231—
  • Conservative79−0.1
  • Bloc Quebecois22—
  • NDP9—
  • Green2—
  • PPC0—
  • 47.0 %
  • 30.4 %
  • 6.3 %
  • 11.8 %
  • 2.4 %
  • 2.1 %

Total100.0 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from October 15, 2026. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

LiberalConservativeBloc QuebecoisNDPGreenPPC

Loading the map…

Who holds what, in your scenario

Liberal

230—
  1. Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola0.1
  2. Richmond Hill South0.4
  3. Central Newfoundland0.4
  4. Elgin--St. Thomas--London South0.8
  5. Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt1.1
  6. Wellington--Halton Hills North1.3
  7. Lethbridge1.3
  8. Saint John--St. Croix1.5
  9. Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte1.5
  10. Terrebonne1.9
  11. Longueuil--Saint-Hubert2.0
  12. Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes3.2
  13. Oshawa3.3
  14. Long Range Mountains3.6
  15. Lanark--Frontenac4.0
  16. Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee4.2
  17. Abbotsford--South Langley4.3
  18. Langley Township--Fraser Heights4.3
  19. Bowmanville--Oshawa North4.3
  20. Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake4.3
  21. Vancouver Kingsway4.7
  22. Niagara South4.7
  23. Markham--Unionville4.9
  24. Beauport--Limoilou4.9
  25. Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna5.0
  26. Newmarket--Aurora5.0
  27. Les Pays-d'en-Haut5.4
  28. Simcoe North5.4
  29. St. Albert--Sturgeon River5.7
  30. Northumberland--Clarke6.0
  31. Cambridge6.5
  32. Brampton West6.5
  33. Calgary East6.5
  34. Hamilton East--Stoney Creek6.6
  35. Kitchener South--Hespeler7.0
  36. Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay7.2
  37. Nanaimo--Ladysmith7.3
  38. Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou7.4
  39. Nunavut7.8
  40. Calgary Heritage8.1
  41. Mount Royal8.3
  42. Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore8.5
  43. Milton East--Halton Hills South8.7
  44. La Prairie--Atateken9.4
  45. Richmond Centre--Marpole9.5
  46. Kitchener--Conestoga9.6
  47. Brampton Centre10.4
  48. Brampton North--Caledon10.5
  49. Acadie--Annapolis10.5
  50. Miramichi--Grand Lake10.6
  51. Brampton South10.7
  52. Eglinton--Lawrence10.8
  53. Calgary Signal Hill11.2
  54. Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma11.3
  55. Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge11.6
  56. Calgary Nose Hill11.7
  57. Cloverdale--Langley City11.8
  58. Terra Nova--The Peninsulas12.0
  59. Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie12.1
  60. Nipissing--Timiskaming12.6
  61. Winnipeg Centre12.7
  62. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles12.7
  63. Trois-Rivières12.8
  64. Brampton East12.8
  65. New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville13.1
  66. Calgary Crowfoot13.3
  67. Thérèse-De Blainville13.4
  68. Brampton--Chinguacousy Park13.7
  69. Hamilton Mountain13.9
  70. Kelowna14.1
  71. Québec Centre14.3
  72. Cumberland--Colchester14.4
  73. Bay of Quinte14.5
  74. Thunder Bay--Rainy River14.6
  75. Laval--Les Îles14.8
  76. Mississauga East--Cooksville15.0
  77. Saskatoon South15.0
  78. Carleton15.1
  79. Markham--Stouffville15.3
  80. Chicoutimi--Le Fjord15.3
  81. Oakville East15.5
  82. Hamilton Centre15.5
  83. Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville15.8
  84. Mississauga--Streetsville15.9
  85. Saskatoon--University16.3
  86. Regina--Lewvan16.4
  87. Richmond East--Steveston16.8
  88. Regina--Wascana16.9
  89. Fleetwood--Port Kells17.5
  90. Mississauga--Lakeshore17.6
  91. Calgary Skyview17.7
  92. Burlington North--Milton West17.8
  93. Oakville West17.9
  94. Edmonton Manning18.1
  95. Whitby18.3
  96. Compton--Stanstead19.0
  97. Willowdale19.1
  98. Etobicoke Centre19.2
  99. Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est19.2
  100. South Surrey--White Rock19.4
  101. Brome--Missisquoi19.7
  102. Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam19.9
  103. Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation20.1
  104. Surrey Centre20.2
  105. Edmonton Northwest20.2
  106. Port Moody--Coquitlam20.5
  107. Mississauga--Malton20.5
  108. Don Valley North20.7
  109. Egmont20.8
  110. Surrey Newton20.8
  111. Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish21.0
  112. Burnaby Central21.2
  113. Scarborough--Agincourt21.3
  114. Edmonton Southeast21.4
  115. Mississauga Centre21.7
  116. Central Nova21.7
  117. St. Catharines21.8
  118. Etobicoke North22.1
  119. Peterborough22.4
  120. Kildonan--St. Paul22.6
  121. Pickering--Brooklin22.6
  122. Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne22.7
  123. Sudbury22.7
  124. Edmonton Gateway22.7
  125. Edmonton West22.9
  126. Labrador23.0
  127. Saint-Maurice--Champlain23.6
  128. Delta23.7
  129. Markham--Thornhill23.7
  130. Pontiac--Kitigan Zibi24.1
  131. Sherbrooke24.5
  132. Burlington24.9
  133. Prescott--Russell--Cumberland25.1
  134. Mississauga--Erin Mills25.5
  135. Vimy25.5
  136. Pierrefonds--Dollard26.1
  137. South Shore--St. Margarets26.8
  138. Ajax27.4
  139. York South--Weston--Etobicoke27.5
  140. Saint-Laurent27.5
  141. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin27.7
  142. Yukon28.0
  143. Madawaska--Restigouche28.5
  144. Etobicoke--Lakeshore28.9
  145. Churchill--Keewatinook Aski29.0
  146. London West29.4
  147. Edmonton Riverbend29.5
  148. Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East29.7
  149. LaSalle--Émard--Verdun29.7
  150. Sydney--Glace Bay29.7
  151. Alfred-Pellan29.9
  152. Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas30.0
  153. Thunder Bay--Superior North30.0
  154. Calgary Centre30.1
  155. Vaudreuil31.1
  156. Humber River--Black Creek31.2
  157. Calgary McKnight31.9
  158. Louis-Hébert32.2
  159. Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby33.0
  160. Cardigan33.2
  161. Malpeque33.9
  162. Laurier--Sainte-Marie34.6
  163. Saint John--Kennebecasis34.6
  164. Guelph34.6
  165. Northwest Territories34.6
  166. Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke34.8
  167. Honoré-Mercier34.9
  168. Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle35.2
  169. Kanata35.6
  170. Avalon35.9
  171. Beaches--East York36.0
  172. Calgary Confederation36.8
  173. Papineau36.8
  174. London Centre37.1
  175. Scarborough--Woburn37.3
  176. Gatineau37.8
  177. Waterloo38.2
  178. Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park38.6
  179. Winnipeg West38.8
  180. Bourassa39.2
  181. Brossard--Saint-Lambert39.2
  182. Outremont39.6
  183. Toronto--St. Paul's39.9
  184. Lac-Saint-Louis40.2
  185. Don Valley West40.4
  186. Scarborough North40.9
  187. Nepean41.1
  188. Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel41.1
  189. Victoria41.1
  190. Kings--Hants41.2
  191. Beauséjour41.3
  192. Burnaby North--Seymour41.5
  193. Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs41.7
  194. Hull--Aylmer41.7
  195. Vancouver Centre41.7
  196. Spadina--Harbourfront41.9
  197. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount42.0
  198. North Vancouver--Capilano42.7
  199. Ahuntsic-Cartierville42.8
  200. Sackville--Bedford--Preston42.9
  201. Fredericton--Oromocto43.1
  202. Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park43.3
  203. Kingston and the Islands43.7
  204. Edmonton Centre44.3
  205. West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country44.7
  206. Davenport44.9
  207. Moncton--Dieppe46.1
  208. Ottawa Centre47.5
  209. Vancouver Quadra49.1
  210. Winnipeg South49.6
  211. Ottawa West--Nepean49.7
  212. Winnipeg North50.1
  213. Charlottetown50.4
  214. Vancouver Granville50.9
  215. Orléans51.1
  216. Ottawa South51.1
  217. St. John's East52.2
  218. St. Boniface--St. Vital52.5
  219. University--Rosedale52.7
  220. Halifax West53.9
  221. Halifax54.1
  222. Acadie--Bathurst57.2
  223. Toronto Centre57.4
  224. Cape Spear58.1
  225. Scarborough Southwest59.2
  226. Toronto--Danforth60.1
  227. Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester60.7
  228. Dartmouth--Cole Harbour61.6
  229. Winnipeg South Centre63.3
  230. Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River69.7

Conservative

80—
  1. Simcoe--Grey0.1
  2. Niagara West0.3
  3. Calgary Midnapore0.4
  4. Windsor West0.5
  5. Parry Sound--Muskoka1.0
  6. Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk1.5
  7. Montmorency--Charlevoix1.5
  8. Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North1.8
  9. Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies2.0
  10. Middlesex--London2.1
  11. London--Fanshawe2.5
  12. Saskatoon West2.6
  13. Fundy Royal2.6
  14. Richmond--Arthabaska2.9
  15. Huron--Bruce3.3
  16. York Centre3.6
  17. Perth--Wellington3.9
  18. Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill3.9
  19. Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations4.0
  20. Calgary Shepard4.5
  21. Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound4.7
  22. Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan5.2
  23. Kenora--Kiiwetinoong5.7
  24. Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga5.8
  25. Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles7.9
  26. York--Durham8.0
  27. Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford8.0
  28. Oxford8.2
  29. Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong8.5
  30. Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry8.6
  31. Chilliwack--Hope8.8
  32. Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes10.0
  33. Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke10.3
  34. Yellowhead10.7
  35. Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk11.8
  36. Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman11.8
  37. Barrie South--Innisfil12.3
  38. Tobique--Mactaquac12.9
  39. Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies13.2
  40. Haldimand--Norfolk13.8
  41. Essex14.3
  42. Vaughan--Woodbridge14.4
  43. Regina--Qu'Appelle14.8
  44. New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury14.8
  45. Airdrie--Cochrane14.9
  46. Chatham-Kent--Leamington15.0
  47. Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata15.1
  48. Lévis--Lotbinière17.7
  49. Dufferin--Caledon17.7
  50. King--Vaughan18.1
  51. Brandon--Souris19.5
  52. Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier19.7
  53. Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis19.9
  54. Provencher20.5
  55. Cariboo--Prince George21.4
  56. Red Deer23.8
  57. Portage--Lisgar27.0
  58. Thornhill27.5
  59. Riding Mountain30.3
  60. Foothills32.7
  61. Parkland33.1
  62. Leduc--Wetaskiwin33.7
  63. Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner35.0
  64. Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière35.8
  65. Bow River38.4
  66. Prince Albert38.6
  67. Beauce38.7
  68. Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan41.5
  69. Fort McMurray--Cold Lake42.1
  70. Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake42.9
  71. Peace River--Westlock45.2
  72. Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies45.4
  73. Lakeland46.5
  74. Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek46.7
  75. Grande Prairie48.1
  76. Battle River--Crowfoot48.5
  77. Yorkton--Melville50.1
  78. Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley59.5
  79. Souris--Moose Mountain62.9
  80. Ponoka--Didsbury69.5

Bloc Quebecois

22—
  1. Shefford0.5
  2. Repentigny2.6
  3. La Pointe-de-l'Île4.3
  4. Mirabel5.4
  5. Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj6.3
  6. Berthier--Maskinongé6.4
  7. Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères6.5
  8. Jonquière8.4
  9. Laurentides--Labelle8.6
  10. Saint-Jean9.0
  11. Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton9.2
  12. Rimouski--La Matapédia9.9
  13. Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntingdon10.3
  14. Rivière-du-Nord11.2
  15. Beloeil--Chambly12.5
  16. Drummond13.1
  17. Côte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan14.6
  18. Joliette--Manawan16.5
  19. Montcalm18.0
  20. Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnôbak18.1
  21. Lac-Saint-Jean18.4
  22. Abitibi--Témiscamingue20.8

NDP

9—
  1. Cowichan--Malahat--Langford0.6
  2. Skeena--Bulkley Valley0.9
  3. Edmonton Griesbach1.1
  4. North Island--Powell River1.5
  5. Elmwood--Transcona2.1
  6. Vancouver East3.0
  7. Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie10.9
  8. Courtenay--Alberni12.5
  9. Edmonton Strathcona14.0

Green

2—
  1. Saanich--Gulf Islands3.9
  2. Kitchener Centre5.7

PPC

0—

—

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published forecast; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.