Who else forecasts the 2026 House, and where do they stand?

Chance that Democrats control it, side by side

Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.

• Vote-Scope (ours) 96.4%
• The Economist 95.0%
• The Economist 92.0%
• Kalshi 91.0%
• Polymarket 90.5%
• ElectIndex 83.0%
• Decision Desk HQ 76.0%

How solid the races are

Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.

• Solid D
• Likely D
• Lean D
• Toss-up
• Lean R
• Likely R
• Solid R

• Vote-Scope (ours) 435 races · as of October 15, 2026 201 47 121
• Decision Desk HQ 435 races · as of October 5, 2026 187 70 120
• Cook Political Report 435 races · as of September 25, 2026 185 176
• Fox News Power Rankings 435 races · as of September 22, 2026 187 175
• Sabato's Crystal Ball 435 races · as of September 29, 2026 182 171
• Inside Elections 435 races · as of October 1, 2026 185 177

What the other forecasters currently say

Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.

Prediction markets

• Kalshi 91.0% Gap vs Vote-Scope +5.4 · as of October 15, 2026 · was 93.0% on October 14, 2026
• Polymarket 90.5% Gap vs Vote-Scope +5.9 · as of October 15, 2026 · was 90.5% on October 15, 2026

Other forecasts worth checking

They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.

• Silver Bulletin (FLIPR)
• Race to the WH
• VoteHub
• FiftyPlusOne
• Split Ticket (The Argument)
• Theo Elections
• Call the Map
• 270toWin