{
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        "us_rep": "Steve Hilton",
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        "us_oth": "John Giuffre (Independent) | Bu La'ia Hill (Independent) | Clyde McClain Lewman (Independent) | Calvert Williamson (Independent)"
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        "margin_sd": 8.0
      },
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        "cycle": "us_governor_2022",
        "winner": "us_dem",
        "margin": 26.4,
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        "us_rep_pct": 36.8,
        "us_oth_pct": 0.0
      }
    },
    {
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      "name_fr": "Iowa",
      "province": "IA",
      "region": "us_gov_ia",
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      "poll_count": 12,
      "recent_poll_count": 9,
      "open_seat": true,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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      "incumbent_status": "retiring",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Rob Sand",
        "us_rep": "Zach Lahn",
        "us_oth": "Sondra Wilson (Independent)"
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        "winner": "us_dem",
        "p_winner": 0.7582,
        "mean_margin": 3.94,
        "p_close_race": 0.6867,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 51.2,
          "us_rep": 48.4,
          "us_oth": 0.4
        },
        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.7582,
          "us_rep": 0.2418,
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
          "code": "lean_dem",
          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Lean Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Avantage démocrate"
        },
        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
      },
      "fundamentals": {
        "pvi_code": "R+6",
        "pvi_margin_dem": -12.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.05,
        "environment_shift": 7.01,
        "margin": -6.42,
        "poll_weight": 0.78,
        "margin_sd": 4.0
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      "baseline_result": {
        "cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "us_dem_pct": 39.5,
        "us_rep_pct": 58.0,
        "us_oth_pct": 2.5
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    },
    {
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      "name_en": "Idaho",
      "name_fr": "Idaho",
      "province": "ID",
      "region": "us_gov_id",
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      "is_special": false,
      "poll_count": 1,
      "recent_poll_count": 1,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Brad Little",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Terri Pickens",
        "us_rep": "Brad Little",
        "us_oth": "Pro-Life (Constitution) | Paul Sand (Libertarian) | John Stegner (Independent)"
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      "projection": {
        "winner": "us_rep",
        "p_winner": 1.0,
        "mean_margin": 30.28,
        "p_close_race": 0.0001,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 29.86,
          "us_rep": 60.14,
          "us_oth": 10.0
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.0,
          "us_rep": 1.0,
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        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Solid Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain solide"
        },
        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
        "pvi_code": "R+18",
        "pvi_margin_dem": -36.0,
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        "margin": -33.14,
        "poll_weight": 0.234,
        "margin_sd": 6.5
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        "us_dem_pct": 20.3,
        "us_rep_pct": 60.5,
        "us_oth_pct": 19.2
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    },
    {
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      "name_en": "Illinois",
      "name_fr": "Illinois",
      "province": "IL",
      "region": "us_gov_il",
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      "is_special": false,
      "poll_count": 1,
      "recent_poll_count": 0,
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "JB Pritzker",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "JB Pritzker",
        "us_rep": "Darren Bailey",
        "us_oth": ""
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      "projection": {
        "winner": "us_dem",
        "p_winner": 0.9976,
        "mean_margin": 19.87,
        "p_close_race": 0.0161,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 59.73,
          "us_rep": 39.87,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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        "win_prob": {
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          "us_rep": 0.0024,
          "us_oth": 0.0
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        "oth_ballot_share": null,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Solid Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin": 19.56,
        "poll_weight": 0.3,
        "margin_sd": 7.0
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        "winner": "us_dem",
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        "us_rep_pct": 42.4,
        "us_oth_pct": 2.7
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    },
    {
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      "name_en": "Kansas",
      "name_fr": "Kansas",
      "province": "KS",
      "region": "us_gov_ks",
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      "poll_count": 2,
      "recent_poll_count": 2,
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Laura Kelly",
      "incumbent_status": "term_limited",
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        "us_dem": "Cindy Holscher",
        "us_rep": "Ty Masterson",
        "us_oth": ""
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        "p_winner": 0.9187,
        "mean_margin": 7.26,
        "p_close_race": 0.3461,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 46.35,
          "us_rep": 53.25,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.0813,
          "us_rep": 0.9187,
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
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          "code": "likely_rep",
          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Likely Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain probable"
        },
        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "margin": -8.99,
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        "margin_sd": 4.95
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        "us_rep_pct": 47.3,
        "us_oth_pct": 3.2
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    },
    {
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      "name_en": "Massachusetts",
      "name_fr": "Massachusetts",
      "province": "MA",
      "region": "us_gov_ma",
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Maura Healey",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
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        "us_dem": "Maura Healey",
        "us_rep": "Mike Minogue",
        "us_oth": "Andrea James (Independent) | Muhammed Kokonezis-Hanino (Independent)"
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        "mean_margin": 29.15,
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        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 64.38,
          "us_rep": 35.22,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Solid Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin": 36.16,
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        "us_oth_pct": 1.7
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    },
    {
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      "name_fr": "Maryland",
      "province": "MD",
      "region": "us_gov_md",
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "us_dem": "Wes Moore",
        "us_rep": "Dan Cox",
        "us_oth": "Andy Ellis (Green) | Cathy White (Working Class)"
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        "p_winner": 1.0,
        "mean_margin": 31.95,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Solid Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Maine",
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        "us_dem": "Hannah Pingree",
        "us_rep": "Robert B. Charles",
        "us_oth": "Rick Bennett (Independent)"
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        "p_winner": 0.9982,
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          "us_oth": 2.27
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        "win_prob": {
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Likely Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "us_rep_pct": 42.4,
        "us_oth_pct": 1.9
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Michigan",
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      "region": "us_gov_mi",
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        "us_dem": "Jocelyn Benson",
        "us_rep": "John James",
        "us_oth": "Anthony Hudson (Libertarian)"
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      "projection": {
        "winner": "us_dem",
        "p_winner": 0.924,
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        "p_close_race": 0.3952,
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          "us_dem": 52.82,
          "us_rep": 46.77,
          "us_oth": 0.41
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.924,
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        "oth_ballot_share": null,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Likely Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "margin": 5.54,
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        "margin_sd": 4.21
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      "baseline_result": {
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        "us_rep_pct": 43.9,
        "us_oth_pct": 1.6
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Minnesota",
      "province": "MN",
      "region": "us_gov_mn",
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      "poll_count": 8,
      "recent_poll_count": 4,
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "us_dem": "Amy Klobuchar",
        "us_rep": "Lisa Demuth",
        "us_oth": ""
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        "p_winner": 0.9051,
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          "us_dem": 53.23,
          "us_rep": 45.41,
          "us_oth": 1.36
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        "win_prob": {
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Likely Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin_sd": 5.95
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        "us_rep_pct": 44.6,
        "us_oth_pct": 3.1
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Nebraska",
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        "us_dem": "Lynne Walz",
        "us_rep": "Jim Pillen",
        "us_oth": "Rick Beard (Legal Marijuana Now) | Brett Lindstrom (America First)"
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        "p_winner": 0.9999,
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          "us_oth": 7.83
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.0001,
          "us_rep": 0.9999,
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Solid Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin": -16.34,
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        "margin_sd": 3.82
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        "us_rep_pct": 59.7,
        "us_oth_pct": 4.0
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    },
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      "name_fr": "New Hampshire",
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      "region": "us_gov_nh",
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2024",
      "incumbent_name": "Kelly Ayotte",
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        "us_dem": "Cinde Warmington",
        "us_rep": "Kelly Ayotte",
        "us_oth": "Jon Kiper (Community First)"
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        "p_winner": 0.9695,
        "mean_margin": 11.33,
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          "us_dem": 43.63,
          "us_rep": 54.81,
          "us_oth": 1.56
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        "win_prob": {
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          "us_rep": 0.9695,
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        "rating": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Likely Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "environment_shift": 9.65,
        "margin": -2.36,
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        "margin_sd": 6.04
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        "us_rep_pct": 53.6,
        "us_oth_pct": 2.1
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      "name_en": "New Mexico",
      "name_fr": "New Mexico",
      "province": "NM",
      "region": "us_gov_nm",
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      "recent_poll_count": 3,
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Michelle Lujan Grisham",
      "incumbent_status": "term_limited",
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        "us_dem": "Deb Haaland",
        "us_rep": "Gregg Hull",
        "us_oth": ""
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        "p_winner": 0.9064,
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          "us_dem": 54.68,
          "us_rep": 44.92,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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          "us_rep": 0.0936,
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Likely Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
        "pvi_code": "D+4",
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        "margin": 12.41,
        "poll_weight": 0.66,
        "margin_sd": 7.37
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      "baseline_result": {
        "cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "margin": 6.4,
        "us_dem_pct": 52.0,
        "us_rep_pct": 45.6,
        "us_oth_pct": 2.4
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    },
    {
      "riding_id": "32000",
      "name_en": "Nevada",
      "name_fr": "Nevada",
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      "region": "us_gov_nv",
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      "poll_count": 11,
      "recent_poll_count": 6,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Joe Lombardo",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Aaron Ford",
        "us_rep": "Joe Lombardo",
        "us_oth": "Christopher Battenberg (Independent) | Max Beck (Independent) | Danielle Ford (Independent) | Jordan Koteras (Independent) | Allen Rheinhart (Independent) | Emilio Rodriguez (Independent) | John Scott (Independent) | Gracie Vanburn (Independent)"
      },
      "projection": {
        "winner": "us_dem",
        "p_winner": 0.6067,
        "mean_margin": 3.47,
        "p_close_race": 0.7491,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 49.69,
          "us_rep": 48.55,
          "us_oth": 1.76
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.6067,
          "us_rep": 0.3933,
          "us_oth": 0.0
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
          "code": "tossup",
          "side": "tossup",
          "label_en": "Toss Up",
          "label_fr": "Toss-up"
        },
        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
        "pvi_code": "R+1",
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        "prior_weight": 1.0,
        "environment_shift": 9.81,
        "margin": 5.56,
        "poll_weight": 0.78,
        "margin_sd": 4.2
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      "baseline_result": {
        "cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "margin": 1.5,
        "us_dem_pct": 47.3,
        "us_rep_pct": 48.8,
        "us_oth_pct": 4.0
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    },
    {
      "riding_id": "36000",
      "name_en": "New York",
      "name_fr": "New York",
      "province": "NY",
      "region": "us_gov_ny",
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      "is_special": false,
      "poll_count": 32,
      "recent_poll_count": 6,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Kathy Hochul",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Kathy Hochul",
        "us_rep": "Bruce Blakeman",
        "us_oth": "Amy Taylor (Working Families)"
      },
      "projection": {
        "winner": "us_dem",
        "p_winner": 0.9571,
        "mean_margin": 10.14,
        "p_close_race": 0.1887,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 54.77,
          "us_rep": 44.83,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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        "win_prob": {
          "us_dem": 0.9571,
          "us_rep": 0.0429,
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Likely Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate probable"
        },
        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "margin": 13.46,
        "poll_weight": 0.78,
        "margin_sd": 5.73
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      "baseline_result": {
        "cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "margin": 6.4,
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        "us_rep_pct": 46.8,
        "us_oth_pct": 0.0
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    },
    {
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      "name_fr": "Ohio",
      "province": "OH",
      "region": "us_gov_oh",
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      "poll_count": 20,
      "recent_poll_count": 8,
      "open_seat": true,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Mike DeWine",
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        "us_dem": "Amy Acton",
        "us_rep": "Vivek Ramaswamy",
        "us_oth": "Timothy Grady (Independent) | Donald Kissick (Libertarian)"
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      "projection": {
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        "p_winner": 0.5583,
        "mean_margin": 3.21,
        "p_close_race": 0.7842,
        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 48.61,
          "us_rep": 48.04,
          "us_oth": 3.35
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        "win_prob": {
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
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          "side": "tossup",
          "label_en": "Toss Up",
          "label_fr": "Toss-up"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "margin": -4.95,
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        "us_rep_pct": 62.4,
        "us_oth_pct": 0.2
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    },
    {
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      "name_en": "Oklahoma",
      "name_fr": "Oklahoma",
      "province": "OK",
      "region": "us_gov_ok",
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      "is_special": false,
      "poll_count": 0,
      "recent_poll_count": 0,
      "open_seat": true,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Kevin Stitt",
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        "us_dem": "Cyndi Munson",
        "us_rep": "Mike Mazzei",
        "us_oth": "Robert Brooks Sr. (Independent) | Jerry Griffin (Independent)"
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      "projection": {
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        "p_winner": 0.9992,
        "mean_margin": 25.63,
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          "us_oth": 2.81
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        "win_prob": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Solid Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "us_oth_pct": 2.8
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Oregon",
      "province": "OR",
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      "poll_count": 4,
      "recent_poll_count": 2,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Tina Kotek",
      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Tina Kotek",
        "us_rep": "Christine Drazan",
        "us_oth": ""
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        "p_winner": 0.7465,
        "mean_margin": 5.81,
        "p_close_race": 0.5006,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Lean Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Avantage démocrate"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "us_rep_pct": 43.6,
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    },
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      "name_fr": "Pennsylvania",
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      "incumbent_name": "Josh Shapiro",
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        "us_dem": "Josh Shapiro",
        "us_rep": "Stacy Garrity",
        "us_oth": "Ken Krawchuk (Libertarian)"
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          "us_rep": 37.84,
          "us_oth": 0.78
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        "win_prob": {
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          "label_en": "Solid Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "us_rep_pct": 41.7,
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    },
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      "name_en": "Rhode Island",
      "name_fr": "Rhode Island",
      "province": "RI",
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      "poll_count": 5,
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      "incumbent_name": "Dan McKee",
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        "us_dem": "Jonathan Coker",
        "us_rep": "Emmanuel Adjei",
        "us_oth": "Ken Block (Independent)"
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          "us_oth": 22.44
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        "win_prob": {
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        "oth_ballot_share": null,
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          "side": "dem",
          "label_en": "Solid Democrat",
          "label_fr": "Démocrate solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "us_rep_pct": 38.9,
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    },
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      "name_en": "South Carolina",
      "name_fr": "South Carolina",
      "province": "SC",
      "region": "us_gov_sc",
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      "poll_count": 2,
      "recent_poll_count": 2,
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      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Henry McMaster",
      "incumbent_status": "term_limited",
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        "us_dem": "Jermaine Johnson",
        "us_rep": "Alan Wilson",
        "us_oth": "Michael Addison (United Citizens) | Walid Hakim (Green)"
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      "projection": {
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        "p_winner": 0.9919,
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        "vote_mean": {
          "us_dem": 45.03,
          "us_rep": 54.57,
          "us_oth": 0.4
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        "win_prob": {
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        "oth_is_contender": false,
        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Likely Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain probable"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin": -9.9,
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        "us_rep_pct": 58.1,
        "us_oth_pct": 1.2
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    },
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      "riding_id": "46000",
      "name_en": "South Dakota",
      "name_fr": "South Dakota",
      "province": "SD",
      "region": "us_gov_sd",
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      "is_special": false,
      "poll_count": 0,
      "recent_poll_count": 0,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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        "us_dem": "Dan Ahlers",
        "us_rep": "Larry Rhoden",
        "us_oth": "Allison Renville (Independent)"
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      "projection": {
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        "p_winner": 0.993,
        "mean_margin": 19.79,
        "p_close_race": 0.0314,
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          "us_oth": 2.91
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        "win_prob": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Solid Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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        "margin": -19.74,
        "poll_weight": 0.0,
        "margin_sd": 8.0
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        "us_oth_pct": 2.9
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    },
    {
      "riding_id": "47000",
      "name_en": "Tennessee",
      "name_fr": "Tennessee",
      "province": "TN",
      "region": "us_gov_tn",
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      "poll_count": 4,
      "recent_poll_count": 1,
      "open_seat": true,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
      "incumbent_name": "Bill Lee",
      "incumbent_status": "term_limited",
      "nominees": {
        "us_dem": "Jerri Green",
        "us_rep": "Marsha Blackburn",
        "us_oth": "Misam Abidi (Independent) | Santiago Asconape (Independent) | Dean Brewer (Independent) | Ray Brown (Independent) | Taylor Hafley (Independent) | David Hatley (Independent) | Wendell Jackson (Independent) | Charles Van Morgan (Independent) | Eddie Lee Murphy (Independent) | Lauren Pinkston (Independent) | Karl Smithson (Independent) | L. Webb Taylor (Independent) | Robert Vick (Independent)"
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      "projection": {
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        "p_winner": 0.9998,
        "mean_margin": 21.07,
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          "us_oth": 6.99
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        "win_prob": {
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        "rating": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Solid Republican",
          "label_fr": "Républicain solide"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "margin": -21.18,
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        "us_rep_pct": 64.9,
        "us_oth_pct": 2.2
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    },
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      "riding_id": "48000",
      "name_en": "Texas",
      "name_fr": "Texas",
      "province": "TX",
      "region": "us_gov_tx",
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      "poll_count": 29,
      "recent_poll_count": 21,
      "open_seat": false,
      "baseline_cycle": "us_governor_2022",
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      "incumbent_status": "incumbent_running",
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        "us_dem": "Gina Hinojosa",
        "us_rep": "Greg Abbott",
        "us_oth": ""
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        "p_winner": 0.9734,
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        "p_close_race": 0.4847,
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          "us_rep": 52.02,
          "us_oth": 1.06
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        "win_prob": {
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          "us_rep": 0.9734,
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        "oth_ballot_share": null,
        "rating": {
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          "side": "rep",
          "label_en": "Lean Republican",
          "label_fr": "Avantage républicain"
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        "projection_cycle": "us_governor_2026"
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      "fundamentals": {
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        "prior_weight": 1.0,
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        "margin": -3.84,
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        "margin_sd": 2.61
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      "baseline_result": {
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