{ "as_of": "2026-09-03", "n_sims": 200000, "seed": 20260903, "registered_voters": 79785, "signatures_needed": 7979, "horizons": { "2026-12-31": { "months": 4, "p_seat_vacant": 0.1226, "p_byelection_held": 0.0596, "by_gate": { "resignation": 0.1145, "standards_existing": 0.008, "standards_new": 0.0, "criminal": 0.0001 } }, "2027-06-30": { "months": 10, "p_seat_vacant": 0.3082, "p_byelection_held": 0.2496, "by_gate": { "resignation": 0.216, "standards_existing": 0.0471, "standards_new": 0.0226, "criminal": 0.0225 } }, "2028-09-03": { "months": 24, "p_seat_vacant": 0.4919, "p_byelection_held": 0.4817, "by_gate": { "resignation": 0.2929, "standards_existing": 0.0522, "standards_new": 0.0771, "criminal": 0.0696 } }, "2029-06-30": { "months": 34, "p_seat_vacant": 0.524, "p_byelection_held": 0.5189, "by_gate": { "resignation": 0.3181, "standards_existing": 0.0523, "standards_new": 0.078, "criminal": 0.0756 } } }, "gate_shares": { "resignation": 0.6071, "standards_existing": 0.0998, "standards_new": 0.1489, "criminal": 0.1443 }, "chain": { "criminal": { "p_investigation": 0.93, "p_farage_charged": 0.3, "p_convicted": 0.65, "p_custodial": 0.25, "p_recall_trigger": 0.045, "p_resign_on_charge": 0.35, "p_vacancy_via_charge_resignation": 0.0975, "median_months_to_charge": 12.1, "median_months_to_resolution": 23.0 }, "standards_existing": { "p_adverse": 0.55, "p_suspension_ge10": 0.15, "p_recall_trigger": 0.0814, "median_months_to_report": 4.3 }, "standards_new": { "p_inquiry_opened": 0.65, "p_adverse": 0.55, "p_suspension_ge10": 0.42, "p_recall_trigger": 0.1502, "median_months_to_report": 10.3 }, "petition": { "p_resign_before_petition": 0.35, "signatures_needed": 7979, "registered_voters": 79785, "p_succeeds_mean": 0.65, "p_succeeds_sd": 0.14, "p_any_trigger_2029": 0.2551 } }, "sensitivity": [ { "id": "farage_charged_double", "override": { "p_farage_charged_given_investigation": 0.6 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2616, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.5821 }, { "id": "no_resign_on_charge", "override": { "p_resign_if_charged": 0.0 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2427, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.4724 }, { "id": "no_resign_before_petition", "override": { "p_resign_before_petition": 0.0 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2382, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.5037 }, { "id": "custodial_double", "override": { "p_custodial_given_convicted": 0.4 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2515, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.525 }, { "id": "new_inquiry_certain", "override": { "p_new_inquiry_opened": 0.9 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2539, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.5423 }, { "id": "suspension_severe", "override": { "p_new_suspension_ge10_given_adverse": 0.7 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2563, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.5605 }, { "id": "petition_easy", "override": { "p_petition_succeeds": [ 0.83, 0.1 ] }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.2571, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.5363 }, { "id": "resigns_like_july", "override": { "resign_hazard_peak_monthly": 0.06 }, "p_byelection_2027_06": 0.3962, "p_byelection_2029_06": 0.659 } ], "race": { "baseline_2024": { "ref": 46.18, "con": 27.89, "lab": 16.21, "ld": 4.39, "grn": 4.21, "oth": 1.12 }, "august_2026": { "farage_votes": 22239, "total_votes": 35112, "turnout_pct": 44.37, "registered": 79785, "farage_votes_2024": 21225, "total_votes_2024": 38602 }, "national_anchor": { "source": "web_data/uk/latest.json", "national_2024": { "ref": 14.29, "con": 23.7, "lab": 33.7, "ld": 12.22, "grn": 6.75 }, "national_now": { "con": 20.6, "grn": 11.5, "lab": 24.7, "ld": 11.1, "ref": 23.2 } }, "scenarios": [ { "id": "full_field_farage", "farage_stands": true, "field": "all_parties", "binface_stands": true, "trigger": "forced", "labels": { "fr": "Champ complet, Farage se représente", "en": "Full field, Farage stands again", "es": "Campo completo, Farage se presenta" }, "notes": { "fr": "Le cas de référence d'une partielle SUBIE : les grands partis reviennent sur le bulletin, Farage défend son siège avec un verdict institutionnel déjà tombé sur lui.", "en": "The reference case for a by-election he did not choose: the major parties are back on the ballot and Farage defends the seat with an institutional verdict already against him.", "es": "El caso de referencia de una parcial no elegida: los grandes partidos vuelven a la papeleta y Farage defiende el escaño con un veredicto institucional ya en su contra." }, "p_reform_hold": 0.9984, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 39.44, "q10": 41.34, "q25": 44.59, "q50": 48.05, "q75": 51.4, "q90": 54.36, "q95": 56.08 }, "p_win": 0.9984 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 17.2, "q10": 18.36, "q25": 20.38, "q50": 22.81, "q75": 25.33, "q90": 27.76, "q95": 29.24 }, "p_win": 0.0016 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 6.34, "q10": 6.86, "q25": 7.84, "q50": 9.06, "q75": 10.42, "q90": 11.76, "q95": 12.63 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 2.58, "q10": 2.79, "q25": 3.19, "q50": 3.68, "q75": 4.25, "q90": 4.83, "q95": 5.2 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 4.83, "q10": 5.22, "q25": 5.92, "q50": 6.8, "q75": 7.79, "q90": 8.78, "q95": 9.43 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 2.21, "q10": 3.17, "q25": 4.86, "q50": 6.79, "q75": 8.74, "q90": 10.57, "q95": 11.72 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.5, "q10": 0.89, "q25": 1.55, "q50": 2.3, "q75": 3.09, "q90": 3.86, "q95": 4.34 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } }, { "id": "full_field_no_farage", "farage_stands": false, "field": "all_parties", "binface_stands": true, "trigger": "forced", "labels": { "fr": "Champ complet, sans Farage", "en": "Full field, no Farage", "es": "Campo completo, sin Farage" }, "notes": { "fr": "Le siège sans l'homme. Clacton donnait 46,2 % à Reform en 2024 quand le parti valait 14,3 % au national : une partie de cet écart part avec lui.", "en": "The seat without the man. Clacton gave Reform 46.2% in 2024 when the party polled 14.3% nationally; part of that gap leaves with him.", "es": "El escaño sin el hombre. Clacton dio 46,2 % a Reform en 2024 cuando el partido valía 14,3 % a nivel nacional; parte de esa brecha se va con él." }, "p_reform_hold": 0.8067, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 27.28, "q10": 29.86, "q25": 34.12, "q50": 38.64, "q75": 43.04, "q90": 46.79, "q95": 49.01 }, "p_win": 0.8067 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 21.33, "q10": 22.88, "q25": 25.63, "q50": 28.87, "q75": 32.45, "q90": 35.84, "q95": 37.96 }, "p_win": 0.1933 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 6.97, "q10": 7.58, "q25": 8.68, "q50": 10.06, "q75": 11.59, "q90": 13.16, "q95": 14.17 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 2.83, "q10": 3.08, "q25": 3.53, "q50": 4.09, "q75": 4.74, "q90": 5.4, "q95": 5.83 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 5.32, "q10": 5.76, "q25": 6.56, "q50": 7.56, "q75": 8.69, "q90": 9.84, "q95": 10.57 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 2.41, "q10": 3.52, "q25": 5.39, "q50": 7.53, "q75": 9.73, "q90": 11.78, "q95": 13.05 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.56, "q10": 0.98, "q25": 1.72, "q50": 2.55, "q75": 3.42, "q90": 4.27, "q95": 4.8 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } }, { "id": "boycott_repeat_farage", "farage_stands": true, "field": "boycott_repeat", "binface_stands": true, "trigger": "resignation", "labels": { "fr": "Août rejoué : boycott et démission choisie", "en": "August replayed: boycott and a chosen resignation", "es": "Agosto repetido: boicot y renuncia elegida" }, "notes": { "fr": "Le scénario d'août à l'identique — utile comme témoin : c'est celui qui a produit 63,3 %, et il montre à quel point ce chiffre tenait au champ.", "en": "August repeated exactly — useful as a control: this is the field that produced 63.3%, and it shows how much that number owed to the boycott.", "es": "Agosto repetido — útil como control: este es el campo que produjo 63,3 %, y muestra cuánto debía esa cifra al boicot." }, "p_reform_hold": 0.9998, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 55.76, "q10": 57.72, "q25": 61.08, "q50": 64.55, "q75": 67.88, "q90": 70.79, "q95": 72.47 }, "p_win": 0.9998 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 19.46, "q10": 20.93, "q25": 23.52, "q50": 26.55, "q75": 29.81, "q90": 32.92, "q95": 34.83 }, "p_win": 0.0003 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 4.69, "q10": 5.55, "q25": 7.02, "q50": 8.7, "q75": 10.52, "q90": 12.31, "q95": 13.38 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } } ], "grid": { "F|all_parties|bin|forced": { "id": "F|all_parties|bin|forced", "farage_stands": true, "field": "all_parties", "binface_stands": true, "trigger": "forced", "labels": {}, "notes": {}, "p_reform_hold": 0.9979, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 39.45, "q10": 41.41, "q25": 44.61, "q50": 48.05, "q75": 51.45, "q90": 54.35, "q95": 56.02 }, "p_win": 0.9979 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 17.18, "q10": 18.32, "q25": 20.37, "q50": 22.77, "q75": 25.32, "q90": 27.75, "q95": 29.19 }, "p_win": 0.0021 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 6.33, "q10": 6.87, "q25": 7.83, "q50": 9.05, "q75": 10.43, "q90": 11.77, "q95": 12.64 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 2.57, "q10": 2.78, "q25": 3.18, "q50": 3.69, "q75": 4.24, "q90": 4.81, "q95": 5.17 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 4.84, "q10": 5.2, "q25": 5.92, "q50": 6.83, "q75": 7.81, "q90": 8.79, "q95": 9.44 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 2.18, "q10": 3.14, "q25": 4.87, "q50": 6.8, "q75": 8.77, "q90": 10.62, "q95": 11.77 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.5, "q10": 0.9, "q25": 1.55, "q50": 2.29, "q75": 3.08, "q90": 3.85, "q95": 4.33 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } }, "F|all_parties|bin|resignation": { "id": "F|all_parties|bin|resignation", "farage_stands": true, "field": "all_parties", "binface_stands": true, "trigger": "resignation", "labels": {}, "notes": {}, "p_reform_hold": 0.9998, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 42.5, "q10": 44.26, "q25": 47.18, "q50": 50.38, "q75": 53.46, "q90": 56.13, "q95": 57.65 }, "p_win": 0.9998 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 16.49, "q10": 17.57, "q25": 19.5, "q50": 21.76, "q75": 24.16, "q90": 26.38, "q95": 27.79 }, "p_win": 0.0002 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 6.1, "q10": 6.61, "q25": 7.54, "q50": 8.68, "q75": 9.96, "q90": 11.22, "q95": 12.01 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 2.46, "q10": 2.66, "q25": 3.04, "q50": 3.52, "q75": 4.06, "q90": 4.6, "q95": 4.96 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 4.63, "q10": 4.99, "q25": 5.68, "q50": 6.51, "q75": 7.43, "q90": 8.34, "q95": 8.98 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 2.12, "q10": 3.0, "q25": 4.63, "q50": 6.49, "q75": 8.33, "q90": 10.1, "q95": 11.15 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.47, "q10": 0.83, "q25": 1.47, "q50": 2.2, "q75": 2.95, "q90": 3.66, "q95": 4.11 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } }, "F|all_parties|nobin|forced": { "id": "F|all_parties|nobin|forced", "farage_stands": true, "field": "all_parties", "binface_stands": false, "trigger": "forced", "labels": {}, "notes": {}, "p_reform_hold": 0.9984, "candidates": { "ref": { "labels": { "fr": "Reform UK", "en": "Reform UK", "es": "Reform UK" }, "share": { "q05": 42.28, "q10": 44.26, "q25": 47.49, "q50": 50.93, "q75": 54.26, "q90": 57.14, "q95": 58.77 }, "p_win": 0.9984 }, "con": { "labels": { "fr": "Conservateurs", "en": "Conservative", "es": "Conservadores" }, "share": { "q05": 18.16, "q10": 19.37, "q25": 21.61, "q50": 24.12, "q75": 26.79, "q90": 29.34, "q95": 30.91 }, "p_win": 0.0016 }, "lab": { "labels": { "fr": "Labour", "en": "Labour", "es": "Laborista" }, "share": { "q05": 7.86, "q10": 8.48, "q25": 9.6, "q50": 10.97, "q75": 12.48, "q90": 13.95, "q95": 14.88 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "ld": { "labels": { "fr": "Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 2.73, "q10": 2.96, "q25": 3.38, "q50": 3.91, "q75": 4.5, "q90": 5.11, "q95": 5.51 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 5.07, "q10": 5.5, "q25": 6.28, "q50": 7.22, "q75": 8.26, "q90": 9.27, "q95": 9.96 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.52, "q10": 0.94, "q25": 1.63, "q50": 2.42, 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"Libéraux-démocrates", "en": "Liberal Democrats", "es": "Liberal-demócratas" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "grn": { "labels": { "fr": "Verts", "en": "Green", "es": "Verdes" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "binface": { "labels": { "fr": "Count Binface", "en": "Count Binface", "es": "Count Binface" }, "share": { "q05": 0.0, "q10": 0.0, "q25": 0.0, "q50": 0.0, "q75": 0.0, "q90": 0.0, "q95": 0.0 }, "p_win": 0.0 }, "oth": { "labels": { "fr": "Autres candidats", "en": "Other candidates", "es": "Otras candidaturas" }, "share": { "q05": 8.21, "q10": 9.58, "q25": 12.08, "q50": 15.13, "q75": 18.4, "q90": 21.76, "q95": 23.93 }, "p_win": 0.0 } } } }, "published_forecast_august_2026": { "run_date": "2026-08-12", "model_version": "v0.7-single-poll-risk", "p_winner": 0.9958, "rows": [ { "bucket": "farage", "published_q50": 62.56, "published_q10": 52.29, "published_q90": 70.84, "actual_pct": 63.34, "error_pts": -0.78, "inside_q10_q90": true }, { "bucket": "binface", "published_q50": 20.83, "published_q10": 13.89, "published_q90": 29.69, "actual_pct": 26.93, "error_pts": -6.1, "inside_q10_q90": true }, { "bucket": "fox", "published_q50": 2.95, "published_q10": 1.11, "published_q90": 5.87, "actual_pct": 0.99, "error_pts": 1.96, "inside_q10_q90": false }, { "bucket": "others", "published_q50": 13.31, "published_q10": 8.93, "published_q90": 17.79, "actual_pct": 8.74, "error_pts": 4.57, "inside_q10_q90": false } ], "winner_error_pts": -0.78, "track_record_url": "/track-record/" }, "validation_august_2026": { "scenario": "boycott répété, Farage présent, démission choisie — le champ du 13 août", "rows": [ { "bucket": "ref", "modelled_q50": 64.64, "actual_pct": 63.34, "error_pts": 1.3, "inside_q10_q90": true }, { "bucket": "binface", "modelled_q50": 26.48, "actual_pct": 26.93, "error_pts": -0.45, "inside_q10_q90": true }, { "bucket": "oth", "modelled_q50": 8.71, "actual_pct": 8.74, "error_pts": -0.03, "inside_q10_q90": true } ], "in_sample": true, "note_fr": "⚠ CE N'EST PAS UNE PRÉVISION. Les priors de report orphelin de ce moteur de scénarios ont été recalibrés SUR ce dépouillement : le rejeu colle donc au réel par construction. Il sert à vérifier que la mécanique du champ est cohérente, rien de plus. La prévision, c'est celle qui a été publiée la veille du scrutin — voir published_forecast_august_2026." } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-04T00:30:30.730629+00:00", "run_date": "2026-09-03" }