Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days
U.S. midterms, Canada, the U.K., France and Spain, updated daily. By Kim Leclerc, twenty years of election campaigns.
Democrats have a 66% chance of winning the Senate majority, across 50,000 simulations.
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 52 | 48–55 | 66% |
| Republican | 47 | 44–52 | 18% |
| Other | 1 | 0–1 | <1% |
51 seats for a majority, out of 100 · 488 polls · updated October 15
Who builds the forecasts
Kim Leclerc has spent more than twenty years inside election campaigns, from door-knocking to national war rooms, in Canada, France and the United States. Vote-Scope turns that experience into models tested every week against past elections.
Every forecast
Electoral college, 270 to win, and the invisible primary in both parties.
All 435 districts, redistricting included, through the 2026 midterms.
The seats up in 2026 and the arithmetic of control.
The 2026 primary results, county by county.
Where the Latino vote is moving, district by district.
How much presidential weight is left before the midterms.
All 343 ridings, and how many seats each party can expect.
The October 2026 general election on the new 127-seat map.
Queen’s Park after 2025, riding by riding.
Upcoming by-elections, seat by seat.
Provincial by-elections, modelled on their own local terrain.
Who is running where.
The prime minister’s standing, on one scale you can follow over time.
All 650 constituencies, checked against the large published constituency polls.
Nigel Farage held Clacton in the 13 August by-election.
Who reaches the runoff in 2027, and who wins it.
All 577 constituencies, with the second-round withdrawals.
Every declared, probable and withdrawn candidate for 2027.
How solid the firewall against the far right still is.
All 350 seats projected province by province, and the calendar to the November 29 vote.
How housing became Spain’s top worry, and which party voters trust on it.
Set each party’s vote and see the 350 seats fall province by province.
Every Vote-Scope index on one page, with a filter.
Canada Goose against Lame-Duck: who blinks first on trade.
How an interim leader is holding the Ontario Liberals together.
Fiscal analysis, one page per budget edition.
The race to the World Series, updated every night.
Playoff paths and goalie volatility, season by season.
Archive: what the model saw before Spain lifted the trophy.
Every sports call the model made, scored after the fact.
Methodology after the signal
Every projection is built from public polls, an open Bayesian method, and the source data behind it — all on the page.